lördag 18 augusti 2018

”SD-gapet” är dubbelt så stort som 2014 (2)

”SD-gapet” är dubbelt så stort som 2014

Grafik: Liv Widell
Göran Eriksson | SvD:

Blir Sverigedemokraternas Sveriges största parti eller ligger partiet kvar på tredje plats? Just nu är det en avgrund mellan SD:s stöd i olika opinionsmätningar. Valet den 9 september kan bli en chock – för väljare, medier och opinionsinstitut.

Läs mer i Svd eller på Wikipedia

fredag 17 augusti 2018

Det handlar om statistik, dumbom!

GP Kulturkrönika - Det handlar om statistik, dumbom!

"Mitt förslag är tråkigt, ja, närmast mördande trist. Jag hör redan gäspningarna. Men jag ser ingen annan möjlighet, inte om vi ska klara samtidens och framtidens stora utmaningar. Vi måste helt enkelt bli bättre på statistik. Vi måste lära oss att se skillnad på den personliga erfarenheten och den verkliga trenden. Endast med siffrornas hjälp kan vi spränga vardagens bubbla och skapa ett moget samtal om allt från klimat till brottslighet.

Eller, för att travestera Bill Clintons chefsstrateg: Det handlar om statistik, dumbom!"

Framgångsfaktorer för politisk opinionsbildning i sociala medier

Kantar Sifo:

Många pratar om att 2018 års riksdagsval kommer att bli det första svenska Facebook-valet och att sociala medier kommer att få ett större inflytande på valresultatet än någonsin tidigare. Att de sociala mediernas påverkan ökar är inte bara viktigt för de politiska partierna utan också för alla andra aktörer som ägnar sig åt politisk opinionsbildning. Så vilka är då framgångsfaktorerna för att lyckas?

Läs mer och här

Väljarpodden avsnitt 1: Dystra någonstansare

Läs även: https://kvartal.se/artiklar/de-fyra-valjartyperna-som-avgor-valet/ 

What internet search data reveals about Donald Trump’s first year in office

Brookings -  What internet search data reveals about Donald Trump’s first year in office:

"To date, much of the analysis of Trump’s initial service has emphasized traditional metrics such as polls, election results, and legislation. All of these are useful ways to analyze, but they ignore big data analytics based on digital tools and social media behavior. Due to their real-time character and the large number of data points, these techniques represent valuable means to examine contemporary behavior."

Read more...

torsdag 16 augusti 2018

Röd-grönt eller alliansen enligt opinionsmätningar

Wikipedia: Projected result by coalitions [edit]
The figures under "Above threshold" disregard votes for parties that would not get enough
votes (4%) to be represented in parliament.
Fieldwork date
Polling firm
OverallAbove threshold
S+MP+VM+C+L+KD
Lead
S+MP+VM+C+L+KD
Lead
14 sep 2014General election43.639.44.243.639.44.2
8–15 Aug 2018Demoskop38.939.20.338.935.63.3
6–9 Aug 2018Sifo40.639.90.740.636.64.0
25 Jul–2 Aug 2018Inizio38.439.10.738.439.10.7
27 Jul–1 Aug 2018Sentio37.633.04.633.730.63.1
25 Jun–22 Jul 2018Novus39.536.23.239.533.26.2
20 Jun–21 Jul 2018SKOP39.737.52.236.234.22.0
13–15 Jul 2018YouGov33.733.7Tie29.829.90.1
28 Jun–3 Jul 2018Sentio35.835.00.832.035.03.0
25 Jun–3 Jul 2018Demoskop39.236.52.739.234.05.2
20–26 Jun 2018Inizio36.739.73.032.839.76.9
7–24 Jun 2018Novus38.036.91.138.033.54.5
15–18 Jun 2018YouGov35.131.83.331.328.72.6
7–18 Jun 2018Ipsos3839138363
8 May–18 Jun 2018SKOP38.438.91.338.435.43.0
4–14 Jun 2018Sifo39.938.71.239.936.33.6
29 May–6 Jun 2018Demoskop36.238.52.336.234.71.5
14 May–6 Jun 2018Novus37.437.50.137.434.62.8
1–5 Jun 2018Sentio36.234.61.636.231.34.9
21–30 May 2018Inizio36.640.74.132.740.78.0
27 Apr–29 May 2018SCB40.038.61.640.035.74.3
10–21 May 2018Ipsos3739237392
7–17 May 2018Sifo38.540.01.538.536.52.0
11–14 May 2018YouGov35.635.6Tie32.032.60.6
16 Apr–13 May 2018Novus39.637.91.739.634.45.2
4–7 May 2018Sentio38.933.85.138.928.010.9
1–7 May 2018Inizio37.840.42.634.040.46.4
24 Apr–2 May 2018Demoskop38.439.10.738.436.22.2

Google delar med sig av statistik om hur våra sökningar förändras

Dagensanalys.se:

Google har delat med sig av våra ändrade sökvanor. Från att söka med enstaka ord har våra sökningar blivit mer komplexa och framförallt personliga.

”Over the past two years, we’ve seen an increase in searches that include highly personal and conversational language—using words like ”me,” ”my,” and ”I,” skriver Google.

Sökningar som innehåller ”__ för mig” har ökat med 60 procent senast två åren.

Sökningar som innehåller ”__ borde jag __” har ökat med 80 procent senaste två åren.

Vad kan vi lära oss av detta? Jo, det gäller att svara på frågorna på din webbplats för att hamna högt på Googles SERP när konsumenterna nu ändrat sina sökningar till att bli mer person-orienterade.

Om du vill läsa mer om hur vi söker på Google ska du klicka här.

onsdag 15 augusti 2018

A novel probabilistic forecast system predicting anomalously warm 2018-2022 reinforcing the long-term global warming trend

From Nature Communications:

In a changing climate, there is an ever-increasing societal demand for accurate and reliable interannual predictions. Accurate and reliable interannual predictions of global temperatures are key for determining the regional climate change impacts that scale with global temperature, such as precipitation extremes, severe droughts, or intense hurricane activity, for instance. However, the chaotic nature of the climate system limits prediction accuracy on such timescales. Here we develop a novel method to predict global-mean surface air temperature and sea surface temperature, based on transfer operators, which allows, by-design, probabilistic forecasts. The prediction accuracy is equivalent to operational forecasts and its reliability is high. The post-1998 global warming hiatus is well predicted. For 2018–2022, the probabilistic forecast indicates a warmer than normal period, with respect to the forced trend. This will temporarily reinforce the long-term global warming trend. The coming warm period is associated with an increased likelihood of intense to extreme temperatures. The important numerical efficiency of the method (a few hundredths of a second on a laptop) opens the possibility for real-time probabilistic predictions carried out on personal mobile devices.

tisdag 14 augusti 2018

Data Visualization in R - Last Chance to Register for Tomorrow's AAPOR Webinar

Last Chance to Register for Tomorrow's AAPOR Webinar:

This AAPOR webinar will provide attendees with an overview of state-of-the-art approaches to visualizing survey data using the R software. The presentation will begin with a brief overview of importing survey data into R, and then focus on worked examples of generating various types of plots and graphical displays to effectively communicate key findings from surveys in a visual manner. The presentation will cover visualization tools in R for both weighted and unweighted survey data, and discuss the key conceptual points behind visual displays that incorporate survey weights. Resources for generating effective graphics in other popular statistical software packages will be provided as well. Attendees will receive web links to all of the data and R code used in the examples, enabling easy replication of the examples illustrated in the presentation.


Registration works best using Chrome or Firefox

SCB-minnen

Gunnar Hedin
Vera Sandahl-Jacobsson
Från SCB:s seniorförening:

Vera Sandahl-Jacobsson har skrivit en intressant berättelse om sina många år vid SCB i Stockholm, 1945-1980. Hela berättelsen finns nedan.

Minnen från SCB av Vera Sandahl-Jacobsson

Gunnar Hedin berättar om de stimulerande 40 år han ägnade SCB och den regionala statistiken. Först i Stockholm 1970-1972 och sedan i Örebro 1972-2010.

Mitt liv med SCB av Gunnar Hedin

Hur mäter opinionsinstituten Sverigedemokraterna?

Har spridningen mellan opinionsinstituten någonsin varit större för ett enskilt parti - nära 12 procentenheter för SD senaste två månaderna?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Swedish_general_election,_2018#Parties

fredag 10 augusti 2018

Cargo-cult statistics and scientific crisis

Significance magazine

Poor practice is catching up with science,1-3 manifesting in part in the failure of results to be reproducible and replicable.4-7 Various causes have been posited,1, 8 but we believe that poor statistical education and practice are symptoms of and contributors to problems in science as a whole.

The problem is one of cargo-cult statistics – the ritualistic miming of statistics rather than conscientious practice. This has become the norm in many disciplines, reinforced and abetted by statistical education, statistical software, and editorial policies.

R generation - The story of a statistical programming language that became a subcultural phenomenon

Significance - Wiley Online Library:

Beyond the age of 5, very few people would profess to have a favourite letter. But if you have ever been to a statistics or data science conference, you may have seen more than a few grown adults wearing badges or stickers with the phrase “I love R!”.

To these proud badge‐wearers, R is much more than the eighteenth letter of the modern English alphabet. The R they love is a programming language that provides a robust environment for tabulating, analysing and visualising data, one powered by a community of millions of users collaborating in ways large and small to make statistical computing more effective and efficient for all.

Opinionsläge per parti

Pollofpolls.se

Opinionsläget per parti sedan första januari 2009 fram till och med senaste intervjudatum. Intervjuperioden är datumen då mätningen genomförts, sista intervjudatumet är således det datum då den senaste opinionsmätningen avslutades. Detta betyder att senaste intervjudatumet alltid är tidigare än senaste mätningens publiceringsdatum. För mer information se metod. Mandatfördelning är uträknad enligt samma metoder som valmyndighetens valsimulator. Partier under 4% tilldelas inga mandat.

Läs mer....

onsdag 8 augusti 2018

UNIK 3D-GRAFIK: Åk med – och se turbulensen från mandatperioden

Inferential Statistics for Data Science

Towards Data Science
This is the 4th post of blog post series ‘Probability & Statistics for Data Science’, this post covers these topics related to inferential statistics and their significance in data science.
  • Inferential Statistics
  • Sampling Distributions & Estimation
  • Hypothesis Testing (One and Two Group Means)
  • Hypothesis Testing (Categorical Data)
  • Hypothesis Testing (More Than Two Group Means)
  • Quantitative Data (Correlation & Regression)
  • Significance in Data Science

Read more.....

tisdag 7 augusti 2018

Harrison Zhou named the Ford Professor of Statistics and Data Science

Harrison Zhou
YaleNews
Harrison Zhou, newly named as the Henry Ford II Professor of Statistics and Data Science, conducts his research on asymptotic decision theory, high dimensional statistics, large covariance matrices estimation, Bayesian nonparametrics, and network analysis.

After earning a Ph.D. in mathematics at Cornell University, Zhou began his teaching career as an assistant professor at Yale in 2004. Prior to his new appointment, he was a full professor of statistics. He currently serves as chair of the Department of Statistics and Data Science. Zhou’s research has been supported by grants from the National Science Foundation, the National Institutes of Health, and the National Cancer Institute.

Read more....

fredag 3 augusti 2018

Why Should Your Child Study Statistics?

Parents | This is Statistics
In 2009, Google’s chief economist Hal Varian told The New York Times, “I keep saying that the sexy job in the next 10 years will be statisticians. And I’m not kidding.” Interest in the field has only increased since Varian’s remarks as word has spread about the field’s good pay and abundance of interesting and meaningful opportunities. In fact, Fortune magazine recently reported that statistics is the fastest-growing STEM degree. Yet the field continues to be a fairly well-kept secret, despite its perks, making jobs in statistics more plentiful than the number of skilled people who can do them.

So why should your child study statistics? Put simply, to pursue a career that’s fun but also provides a good return on your education investment.

Read more....

Comparison of top data science libraries for Python, R and Scala

[Infographic] - Data Science Central

Data science is a promising and exciting field, developing rapidly. The area of data science use cases and influence is continuously expanding, and the toolkit to implement these applications is growing fast. Therefore data scientists should be aware of what are the best solutions for the particular tasks.

So while many languages can be useful for a data scientist, these three remain the most popular and are developed to implement data science and machine learning solutions.

Read more....

Undersökningsbolaget Ipsos i jätteaffär med GfK

Dagensanalys.se
Ipsos har köpt fyra koncernenheter från GfK för över 1 miljard kronor. Sverige påverkas med flytt av personal.

Ipsos har köpt enheterna – customer experience, experience innovation, health och public affairs.

Köpet berör nära 1.000 anställda som nu tillhör Ipsos ifrån 25 länder, därav Sverige är ett av dessa.

Läs mer...

Placing statistics at the centre of national discourse

Dr John Steytler
New Era Newspaper Namibia:
People, governments, corporations and other stakeholders have realised how critical data, facts, figures and statistics are to the development to propel nations to greater heights. Not just in Namibia, or in the SADC region, but globally the mining of data and basing policies and blue-prints for the future on real, reliable and well-researched statistics is now the norm.

New careers such as being data scientist now exist. Statistics is at the centre of the data revolution. The Namibia Statistics Agency (NSA) has successfully managed to place statistics and development at the epicentre of national discourse and continues to do so, stimulating and assisting other stakeholders to do the same.

Read more....

The statistical legacy of P.C. Mahalanobis

Prof. Prasanta Chandra Mahalanobis,
the founder of the Indian Statistical Institute.
The statistical legacy of P.C. Mahalanobis - Livemint:
He was instrumental in orchestrating different aspects of planning in the newly-independent India.

In 2015, Barack Obama appointed D.J. Patil as the US’ first chief data scientist and deputy chief technology officer for data policy. Is it so important to get insights from loads of data for framing national policy in today’s world?

On 29 June, the nation celebrated the 125th birth anniversary of Prof. Prasanta Chandra Mahalanobis, the founder of the Indian Statistical Institute (ISI) and the creator of an enriched statistical legacy in India. At this juncture, my quest is to analyse how a Mahalanobis style of academic leadership and data handling is still the best way for the country’s benefit.

Data Science and the Quest for Truth

Bob Hayes CustomerThink:
I was interviewed by IBM to share my thoughts on a topic related to data science about which I’m passionate: How do we know what we know and, once we know it, how do we know it’s the truth? IBM turned that interview into a comic strip (see below) and I summarize my points in this post.

You would think that, because we have access to so much information in this digital age, getting to the truth would be relatively quick and easy. As I’ve discussed before, people hold beliefs that are not supported by the information available to them. Take, for example, the 27% of Americans who don’t believe there is solid scientific evidence of climate change, the rise of the “anti-vaxxers” who think that they know more about science and public health than the overwhelming majority of doctors, immunologists and other health professionals, the “flat-earthers” who ignore the ample evidence that the earth is a sphere, the increase in Google Trends that shows that searches of the term “flat earth” have more than tripled over the past two years and more.

I’ve given this topic a lot of thought and I would like to talk about the problems about the importance of everybody gaining some knowledge on statistics and critical thinking (scientific method, evidence-based decisions). Here are few points I made in the interview.

Read more....