onsdag 17 januari 2018

Selected Recent Articles from Top DSC Contributors

This is a new series, featuring great content from our top contributors. Some of these articles are rather technical in nature, but many are business-oriented and written in simple English. The entire series consists of about 120 articles. We intend to publish a new set every two weeks or so. Click here to check out the previous edition. To read more articles from a same author, read one of his/her articles and click on his/her profile picture to access the full list. Some of these articles are curated or posted as guest blogs.

Selected Recent Articles from Top DSC Contributors


Registrations for the next three EMOS Webinars are now open. Registration is on a first-come first-serve basis.

Webinar title: Web surveys
Presenters: Vasja Vehovar and Nejc Berzelak, University of Ljubljana
Date: 7 February 2018

Webinar title: Innovations in business statistics data collection
Presenter: Ger Snijkers, Statistics Netherlands
Date: 21 February 2018

Webinar title: Statistical monitoring of sustainable development at global, EU and national level (with a case study of Poland)
Presenters: Nicola Massarelli, Eurostat, and Monika Gorzelak, Statistics Poland
Date: 28 February 2018

You can check the content and register for these webinars at: http://konference.ef.uni-lj.si/emos/webinars/ where you will also find the recording of the webinar The European Statistical System that took place on 10 January 2018.

fredag 12 januari 2018

The Guinness Brewer Who Revolutionized Statistics

The Guinness Brewer Who Revolutionized Statistics:
One of the greatest minds in 20th Century statistics was not a scholar. He brewed beer.

Guinness brewer William S. Gosset’s work is responsible for inspiring the concept of statistical significance, industrial quality control, efficient design of experiments and, not least of all, consistently great tasting beer.

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Traits of a Successful Statistician

Traits of a Successful Statistician:
It goes without saying that a successful statistician must have strong analytical and technical skills. Clearly, you need to know and understand statistics—this is, after all, the added value that you uniquely provide. Most statisticians have master’s degrees, but some—especially those who plan to go into academia—earn PhDs. Still others might hold, at least initially, an undergraduate degree only. How far to take your training is highly dependent on the specific career path you expect to follow.

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How Not To Lie With Statistics

How Not To Lie With Statistics:
Darrell Huff's classic How to Lie with Statistics is perhaps more relevant than ever. In this short article, I revisit this theme from some different angles.

"What is truth?" and "What is a lie?" are questions that have drawn the attention of philosophers, theologians, legal scholars and intellectuals of many kinds for centuries. I am not a scholar or intellectual, merely a hardhat statistician working in marketing research and what is vaguely called data science. Regardless of what we do for a living, however, all of us are consumers of statistics at work and in our daily lives. “Statistics” can refer to figures or mathematical models, and either can be used to deceive us, are often misinterpreted or can be flat out wrong.

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onsdag 10 januari 2018

Investeringsprocess Avanza Auto

Från White Paper, Avanza Fonder AB:
Avanza Auto använder den s.k. Black-Littermanmodellen som är en praktisk utveckling av HarryMarkowitz nobelprisbelönta och klassiska portföljvalsmetod.

Markowitz portföljvalsmodell från 1950-talet bygger på att hitta den optimala avvägningen mellan risk och avkastning i en portfölj beroende på investerarens preferenser för risktagande.

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The 10 most important breakthroughs in Artificial Intelligence

Switching to statistics

Though neural networks had existed as a concept for some time (see above!), it wasn’t until the late 1980s when there was a big shift amongst AI researchers from a “rules based” approach to one instead based on statistics - or machine learning. This means that rather than try to build systems that imitate intelligence by attempting to divine the rules by which humans operate, instead taking a trial-and-error approach and adjusting the probabilities based on feedback is a much better way to teach machines to think. This is a big deal - as it is this concept that underpins the amazing things that AI can do today.

Gil Press at Forbes argues that this switch was heralded in 1988, as IBM’s TJ Watson Research Center published a paper called “A statistical approach to language translation”, which is specifically talking about using machine learning to do exactly what Google Translate works today.

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A User's Guide To China's Economic Statistics

China will soon release full-year economic growth figures for 2017. Don't be surprised if the headline number is 6.7%. After all, that is the target. Economic output tracked 6.9% above last year's level throughout Q1 and Q2 of 2017, falling to 6.8% in Q3. With China's leaders talking up the "quality" rather than the quantity of economic growth, it's a safe bet that growth will be allowed to glide down toward the 6.7% target for the final quarter.

Read more....

tisdag 9 januari 2018

Videos for teaching and learning statistics

Helping learners and teachers feel better about maths and stats:
It delights me that several of my statistics videos have been viewed over half a million times each. As well there is a stream of lovely comments (with the odd weird one) from happy viewers, who have found in the videos an answer to their problems.

In this post I will outline the main videos available on the Statistics Learning Centre YouTube Channel. They already belong to 24,000 playlists and lists of recommended resources in textbooks the world over. We are happy for teachers and learners to continue to link to them. Having them all in one place should make it easier for instructors to decide which ones to use in their courses.

Read and view.....

lördag 30 december 2017

”Gamla metoder allt sämre på att mäta opinionen rätt”

Foto: IBL
Problemen med väljarbarometrar brukar sopas under mattan med hänvisning till statistisk teori och beprövade metoder. Samtidigt har de praktiska problemen vuxit. Det håller inte längre. Tiden är inne för en öppen och pragmatisk diskussion om hur metoderna kan förfinas, skriver Anders Lindholm och Peter Santesson, Demoskop.

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Förändras partisympatierna, eller bara urvalet?

Så, för att summera: förutom de reservationer kring förändringars statistiska signifikans, den slumpvariation som aldrig kan undvikas, och de snedvridningar som kommer till uttryck i s.k. house effects (scrolla ned en bit på pollofpolls.se för att se skattningar av dessa i Sverige), så finns det ytterligare en felkälla kring opinionsmätningar i det att urvalet kan variera över tid (för samtliga institut) eftersom det varierar hur mycket olika partiers supportrar har lust att svara. Med detta inte sagt att de stora förändringar vi sett de senaste åren enbart skulle vara en synvilla. Men det finns som sagt skäl att vara försiktig i tolkningen av så snabba svängningar, och inte göra sig för starka föreställningar om att väljare byter parti väldigt lättvindigt.

söndag 17 december 2017

Data Visualization for Social Science

Data Visualization for Social Science:
You should look at your data. Graphs and charts let you explore and learn about the structure of the information you collect. Good data visualizations also make it easier to communicate your ideas and findings to other people. Beyond that, producing effective plots from your own data is the best way to develop a good eye for reading and understanding graphs—good and bad—made by others, whether presented in research articles, business slide decks, public policy advocacy, or media reports. This book teaches you how to do it."

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How one woman used regression to influence the salaries of many

Significance - Wiley Online Library:
Elizabeth L. Scott (1917–1988) devoted the last twenty years of her life to shining a spotlight on inequities in academic salaries. At the University of California, Berkeley in the early 1970s, she found significant differences between the salaries of men and women. On average within the same job title, women received over $300 per month less than men; for women directors, the shortfall was about $750 per month. Across the USA, she found that 80% of female faculty members were underpaid on average by at least $1500 per year when compared to men with the same qualifications, and this difference was not explained by career interruptions, it widened with the increase in years since completing a PhD, and it was greater in research universities and the sciences.

Read more....

fredag 15 december 2017

Want to be a data scientist? Learn these languages

Big Data revolutions are not brought on by spreadsheets and databases. It’s real-time analysis that creates pathways to success. Knowing how to use software tools is just a part of the challenge; the crucial part is to understand data across disciplines, communicate its meaning in a useful form, and use statistics that help fine-tune the “number-crunching” to yield an advantage for your company and your career.


onsdag 13 december 2017

Stor befolkning inget självändamål

Ska man prata om att vi måste öka befolkningen, så måste vi acceptera att det är dyrt och en ekonomisk förlustaffär. Vi kan säga att det är moraliskt rätt, men kom inte med påhitt om att vi tjänar på det, skriver gästkolumnist Lars Wilderäng.

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söndag 10 december 2017

Regeringar behöver vara mer än bara bra

En regressionsanalys med röstförändringar för våra tio uppmätta regeringsblock som beroende variabel och retrospektiva bedömningar av respektive regerings insatser som oberoende variabel visar på ett starkt samband. Väljares retrospektiva värderingar av regeringars prestationer förklarar hela 78 procent av variansen i valutslagen. De flesta av de undersökta fallen ligger dessutom mycket nära den prediktiva regressionslinjen. Lutningskoefficienten är +0.60, vilket betyder att en enhets förändring på bedömningsskalan i snitt åsamkar regeringsblocket lite mer än en halv procentenhets upp- eller nedgång i valresultatet.

Läs mer....

torsdag 7 december 2017

The traces of trillions in economic activity

Financial big data:
Day one of Newsweek's AI and data science in capital markets event examined a range of new data sources.
There are four essential areas that investment firms need to know about in order to compete, said Tammer Kamel, CEO of Quandl. These are: statistics 101; data science (the icing on the cake is machine learning and AI); some non-financial domain knowledge; and good old capital markets know-how.

Read more....

Data scientist of 2020: Sexiest Career of the 21st Century

Data Scientist of 2020: Sexiest Career of the 21st Century.
Data science has been a buzzword in the market for quite some time, it has even been labelled the "Sexiest Career of the 21st Century". That quote alone has cropped up many times in presentations, articles and undoubtedly many internet searches. So, where did this "new" career suddenly come from?

The term data science is not actually as new as we think it is, the discipline of data science has already been around for over 30 years. In 1997, C.F. Jeff Wu gave the inaugural lecture entitled "Statistics = Data Science?" for his appointment to the H. C. Carver Professorship at the University of Michigan. In this lecture, he characterised statistical work as a trilogy of data collection, data modelling and analysis, and decision-making. In his conclusion, he initiated the modern, non-computer science, usage of the term "data science" and advocated that statistics be renamed data science and statisticians, data scientists.1

onsdag 6 december 2017

Report: 71% of consumers fear AI will infringe on their privacy

Image: iStockphoto/monsitj
Despite optimism from tech leaders, consumers may not be as excited for AI in their lives, a new study found.
  • 63% of consumers are worried AI will make impactful choices without them knowing. -Genpact, 2017
  • 59% think their government should do more to ensure their data is protected from AI. -Genpact, 2017
  • 71% of consumers fear AI will infringe on their personal privacy in some way. -Genpact, 2017

Statistik om politiskt våld har slutat föras

Foto: Roger Turesson
Vid årsskiftet övertar Brå arbetet mot våldsbejakande extremism. Men vilka grupper som står för våldet känner myndigheten inte till, eftersom ingen för sådan, officiell statistik. ”Det är jätteallvarligt”, menar forskaren Heléne Lööw.

Läs mer....