måndag 3 augusti 2020

Face-off over face-masks: Europe’s latest north-south split

Coronaveckan som gått

onsdag 29 juli 2020

Computer says ....

Nicole Wheeler
Qvintensen Webb
As AI‐augmented decision‐making advances, Dr Nicole Wheeler wonders who will be left behind.

Artificial intelligence (AI) is transforming our daily lives. Over recent years, we have seen exponential growth in the use of AI algorithms to automate decisions that impact the way we live and the societies we live in. These technologies can reduce the burden of repetitive or dangerous work, allow tasks to be performed more quickly, consistently and accurately, and allow more personalised decision‐making. The evolution of these automated decision‐making systems is accelerating, and is starting to outpace the frameworks we use to understand and regulate them. This automation can lead to greater efficiency, consistency and fairness, but it can also introduce unexpected biases.

”Varför finns ingen statistik av kvalitet om covid-19?”

Bild: Thinkstock
Dagens Medicin

Hittills har ingen nationell undersökning av smittspridning och symptom publicerats i Sverige som bygger på normala statistiska metoder, skriver Tom Andersson, fil lic i matematisk statistik.

Aldrig någonsin har så mycket data och siffror publicerats om ett sjukdomsutbrott på så kort tid. Det är såklart motiverat under en allvarlig pandemi. Mer obegripligt är varför statistiken tillåts hålla så dålig kvalitet.

Read more....

fredag 24 juli 2020

'No proof,' Official defends Sweden's controversial Covid-19 move


https://youtu.be/3YQkiHIQ7Dw

Sweden's State Epidemiologist Anders Tegnell tells CNN's Christiane Amanpour that, despite the country's high mortality rate, the no-lockdown strategy has "served us very well."

Stora skillnader i överdödlighet våren 2020 utifrån födelseland

Läkartidningen

Överdödligheten under mars–maj 2020 jämfört med 2016–2019 bland medelålders (40–64 år) och äldre (> 65 år) personer födda i länder varifrån många nyligen invandrat som flyktingar var ca 220 procent.

Bland personer födda i Sverige, EU, Norden eller Nordamerika var överdödligheten bland äldre 19 procent och bland medelålders -1 procent.

Trångboddhet, flergenerationsboende och mindre möjligheter till social distansering i hemmiljö och arbetsmiljö är troliga bidragande orsaker.

What Exactly is Artificial Intelligence and Why is it Driving me Crazy

How Accurate Are Prediction Markets?

torsdag 23 juli 2020

Nigeria fyrdubblas i befolkningsstorlek och Europa krymper

DN.SE
Världens befolkning kommer att bli betydligt mindre än man tidigare trott, visar en uppmärksammad studie som publicerats i den ansedda tidskriften The Lancet. Barnafödandet minskar dramatiskt inte bara i Västvärlden utan även i Asien och Latinamerika. På sikt kommer hela världen att bli beroende av kraftigt ökad migration från Afrika. I synnerhet från Nigeria, den regionala jätte som kommer att gå om Kina i storlek.

Siffrorna kan vara svåra att greppa. Folkhälsonestorn Hans Rosling illustrerade den globala befolkningen genom att tala om en världens pinkod, som när han lanserade begreppet var 1114: En miljard människor i Nord- och Sydamerika, en miljard i Europa, en miljard i Afrika och fyra miljarder i Asien. Vid slutet av detta århundrade skulle världen få en annan pinkod: 1145. De ändrade siffrorna på slutet visade hur Afrikas befolkning förväntades fyrdubblas medan Asien skulle växa med ytterligare en miljard människor.

Read more....

onsdag 22 juli 2020

Book Review: Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way by Will Kurt

insideBIGDATA

“Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way: Understanding Statistics and Probability with Star Wars, Lego, and Rubber Ducks,” by Will Kurt (2019 No Starch Press) is an excellent introduction to subjects critical to all data scientists. Will Kurt, in fact, is a data scientist! I always advise my data science classes at UCLA to engage these important subjects in order to obtain a well-rounded exposure to disciplines upon which data science is based. I’ve already added this title to my official bibliography of learning resources given to my students.

'...we shall all be Bayesian by 2020'

Read more... 

tisdag 21 juli 2020

Causes and occurrence of deaths in the EU

söndag 19 juli 2020

Coronavirus tracked: the latest figures as countries start to reopen

Financial Times

The human cost of coronavirus has continued to mount, with more than 14m cases confirmed globally and more than 589,200 people known to have died. The World Health Organization has declared the outbreak a pandemic and it has spread to more than 200 countries around the world. This page provides an up-to-date visual narrative of the spread of Covid-19, so please check back regularly because we will be refreshing it with new graphics and features as the story evolves.

Forecasting the US 2020 elections


The Economist

The Economist is analysing polling, economic and demographic data to predict America’s elections in 2020.

fredag 17 juli 2020

CAN WE TRUST DATA ON THE SPREAD OF COVID-19?

Top 20 Visualization Dashboards for Mapping COVID-19


Credit: Tableau
Analytics Vidhya

The best way to track the COVID-19 outbreak is by using data and visualization. The COVID-19 patterns are sometimes contradictory and this is where visualizations come in.

Data visualization is enabling understanding of the coronavirus pandemic with the John Hopkins University and World Health Organization Dashboards providing updates.
"Data scientists and researchers are collaborating by using visualizations to map the coronavirus. Visualization techniques are assisting the public to understand COVID-19 outbreak and implement safety measures.
Further, visualizations break down COVID-19 trends into simplified information for public understanding. Data scientists are using visualizations to predict the next out breakpoint, forecasting peak levels and measuring curve flattening.

Here is a list of top 20 visualizations mapping COVID-19.

Read more....

torsdag 16 juli 2020

Journal interviews UTEP Professor for series on Prominent Statistics Educators

El Paso Herald-Post

The Journal of Statistics Education (JSE) interviewed The University of Texas at El Paso’s Larry Lesser, Ph.D., professor of mathematical sciences, in its spring 2020 issue as part of its series on prominent statistics educators.

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Covid-19 data - Tracking covid-19 excess deaths across countries | Graphic detail

The Economist

In many parts of the world, official death tolls undercount the total number of fatalities.

As covid-19 spread around the world, people have become grimly familiar with the death tolls that their governments publish each day. Unfortunately, the total number of fatalities caused by the pandemic may be even higher, for several reasons. First, the official statistics in many countries exclude victims who did not test positive for coronavirus before dying—which can be a substantial majority in places with little capacity for testing. Second, hospitals and civil registries may not process death certificates for several days, or even weeks, which creates lags in the data. And third, the pandemic has made it harder for doctors to treat other conditions and discouraged people from going to hospital, which may have indirectly caused an increase in fatalities from diseases other than covid-19.

Read more....

onsdag 15 juli 2020

Överdödlighet under coronavåren

SVT Nyheter

Varje år dör runt 90 000 personer i Sverige. Innan pandemin så innebar det att i genomsnitt runt 1 700 människor per vecka miste livet. Coronavirusets framfart tog den siffran upp till en topp på 2 500 döda under en vecka i början av april.

Här är en koll på överdödligheten under coronakrisen – i Sverige, i våra regioner och i Europa.

Fertility, mortality, migration, and population scenarios for 195 countries and territories from 2017 to 2100: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study

The Lancet

Understanding potential patterns in future population levels is crucial for anticipating and planning for changing age structures, resource and health-care needs, and environmental and economic landscapes. Future fertility patterns are a key input to estimation of future population size, but they are surrounded by substantial uncertainty and diverging methodologies of estimation and forecasting, leading to important differences in global population projections. Changing population size and age structure might have profound economic, social, and geopolitical impacts in many countries. In this study, we developed novel methods for forecasting mortality, fertility, migration, and population. We also assessed potential economic and geopolitical effects of future demographic shifts.

Read more...
Lyssna även på SR Studio1: Världens befolkning kommer öka mindre än väntat
DN: "Bara" 8,8 miljarder i världen år 2100

tisdag 14 juli 2020

Undercounting mortality in the Covid-19 pandemic

Significance magazine

This comment concerns the most common reasons mortality has been undercounted during the novel coronavirus pandemic, to raise awareness in the general public and help researchers to analyze mortality data with caution. Different countries’ different reporting systems may have different problems; no data are flawless. This comment offers six general issues that apply to most countries, before proceeding to focus on the peculiarities of Covid-19.

Read more...

söndag 12 juli 2020

World Population Day: Population trends up to 2100

Därför är statistiken om covid-19 så mångtydig

Sydsvenskan

Sverige har drabbats extra hårt av det nya coronaviruset. Eller inte. Här avlider fler i covid-19 än i andra länder. Eller inte. I höst kommer en ny våg av den fruktade sjukdomen. Eller inte. Det finns siffror på det mesta. Låt oss titta ner i statistikens fallgropar.

Sweden’s two corona months are not more deadly than the flu of the 90s – but that does not mean that everything is normal

torsdag 9 juli 2020

A 'Nordic' comparison: Sweden has lower overall mortality than Finland - and Scotland!

tisdag 7 juli 2020

Johan Carlson: Coronadrabbat Sverige var en slump

SvD

Den stora coronaspridningen i Sverige berodde på en ”slump”, säger Folkhälsomyndighetens generaldirektör Johan Carlson. Därför ska vi inte jämföra oss med de nordiska länderna.

– Har man inte haft det här inflödet som vi haft så är inte Norden vårt jämförelseobjekt, säger Carlson.

Läs mer...
samt svar i SVD: Sveriges misslyckande är  ingen slump

måndag 6 juli 2020

Folkhälsomyndigheten försöker dölja sitt misslyckande

CIJSummer. Covid-19: A Data Story. UK and Sweden.


https://youtu.be/NtIBcS4njo8

Föregående influensasäsong avgör hur sårbar en befolkning är?

Svenska statistikfrämjandets Nyhetsbrev - Massor av event till hösten

  • Call for papers to the journal Statistics, Politics and Policy
  • PhD-course in statistical inference 2020/2021
  • ECAS skapar plattform för att förbättra kommunikation
  • Här är filmen från webinaret om framtiden för statistikämnet med Mattias Villani
  • Statistikfrämjandets konferens planeras till i höst
  • NordStat skjuts till juni 2021
  • Glad sommar! Fler webinar kommer till hösten!
    Nyhetsbrev juli 2020