söndag 6 november 2016

Election Update: Don’t Ignore The Polls — Clinton Leads, But It’s A Close Race

From FiveThirtyEight
Two weeks ago, I noted the unusually wide spread in national polls, which showed margins ranging from a 14 percentage point lead for Hillary Clinton to a 1-point lead for Donald Trump. Now, the results have shifted toward Trump, but the range has narrowed. Of 14 national polls since Oct. 28, when FBI Director James Comey put Clinton’s email server back in the news, all but one show somewhere between a 5-point lead for Clinton and a 1-point lead for Trump.

Here’s the data for all fully post-Comey national polls. For a twist, I’ll sort the polls by their FiveThirtyEight pollster ratings, so we can see if the higher-quality polls show a different outcome than the more dubious ones do.