From SIGNIFICANCE, by Timothy Martyn Hill on 02 November 2016.On Tuesday, 8 November 2016, the United States will hold its 58th quadrennial presidential election. Many pundits believe, as they have done throughout the campaign, that Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton stands a better chance of winning than Republican nominee Donald Trump. However, a new ABC News/Washington Post poll puts Trump ahead – albeit only by a percentage point, which is well within the poll’s margin of error.
But just how far can we trust the polls to give us an accurate read on the likely election outcome? As we have done for the 2015 UK general election and the 2016 EU referendum, we review the predictions for the previous presidential election, held in 2012, and note the errors that were made.
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