Our latest forecast for how many pledged delegates each candidate will win after all states have voted.
FiveThirtyEight’s model simulates the primary season thousands of times to find the most likely outcome for each candidate. The chart shows how many delegates, on average, each candidate is projected to have pledged to them at each point in the primary season, along with a range of possible delegate counts. We’re also showing the distribution of simulated final pledged delegate counts in the table, where taller bars mean a more likely outcome. Right now, many candidates, even the front-runners, wind up with tall bars close to zero — generally, those are simulations where the candidate dropped out before having a chance to accumulate many delegates.