onsdag 15 februari 2017

Statistics and politics have much to teach one another

Juggling Mega-Data Illustration by Greg Groesch/The Washington Times
Juggling Mega-Data Illustration by Greg Groesch/The Washington Times more >
From Washington Times:
Big Data provides the power to gauge opinion, and to shape it

What this past year has taught me more than anything is this: First, you can learn a lot about statistics from politics; and second, both are misunderstood.

It has been an interesting year in politics, polling and statistics. In talking to most people, one would get the impression all three are broken. If one were to believe the polls, Brexit would not have happened and Donald Trump would not be the 45th president of the United States.

Does this mean all polls are broken, or we are signaling the end of the era of statistics? It is highly probable that the answer is no, and I contend that Big Data and a statistically driven society is not dead, it is just not yet fully understood.

So why do we keep getting it so wrong? Read more ....